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Week 17 DFS Deep Dive: WRs

Week 17!! We made it, but fear not, as long as there are games I'll keep writing and playing DFS! Before we get into this, I just want you to know, that this article is a fraction of the DFS content you could be accessing if you join our Youtube members section. Each week you’ll be able to read a single position group on this website, but if you’d like access to the entire Deep Dive, along with an exclusive Members-Only video talking through core plays and stacks for each week, then you need to subscribe through our YouTube Members section, choosing the Golden Deckchair package, which works out to the equivalent of less than $2 per week, at that price it'll pay for itself! Once you’re subscribed you’ll have access to our Discord with the full write-up available there.


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Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill $9300 vs Ravens

It hasn’t been great for Tyreek Hill in recent weeks, posting back-to-back finishes outside the top 15 at the position and seeing his yard per route run drop to 2.6, a massive drop from his Week 1-13 average of 4.8. With Jaylen Waddle set to miss the game against the Ravens, Hill could be set for elite volume and as high as a 40% target share. The problem for Hill will be that with Waddle out it’ll be a lot easier for the Ravens to guess where the ball is going and it might not come easily. But still, this game has undeniable upside for tournaments and that’s where I’d prioritize Hill.

Usage Suggestions: Tournaments only. I’m not high on Tua this week, so it makes more sense to run Hill as a bring-back to Ravens stacks or as a solo play.

AJ Brown $8600 vs Cardinals

Back in Week 9 AJ Brown was garnering some MVP conversations, having been a top-10 WR in five of the last six games and going over 100 yards in all of six, but since that point, Brown has crossed 100 yards only once and hasn’t finished inside the top-ten once. The Eagles need to get him going and he faces a cupcake of a matchup against a Cardinals team allowing a league-high catch rate of 70.5% to wide receivers. The Cardinals have particularly struggled against WR1s, allowing big days to Ja’Maar Chase (52.2pts), Tank Dell (28.9pts), Amari Cooper (24.9pts) and Deebo Samuel (21.9pts). This is reflected in DVOA where they rank 30th vs WR1s, and perhaps importantly for this game, they rank 6th best against WR2s.

Usage Suggestions: There are WRs who’ve been more consistent that we can focus on for cash games, but in tournaments the allure of stacking AJ Brown with either Jalen Hurts or the cheaper Kyler Murray, is worth considering.

Cooper Kupp ($8100) & Puka Nacua ($7900) vs Commanders

The Rams are set for the cushiest of cushy matchups against a Giants team that has struggled against both the pass and the run. The Giants allow the sixth most fpts to opposing WRs, struggling against both WRs aligned out wide and in the slot. Cooper Kupp had had 22 catches in his last three games, finishing as a top-five receiver in two of those, and Nacua finished as the WR3 overall last week and continues to have seen 7+ targets in every game this year.

Usage Suggestions: I would lean slightly to Nacua for cash due to his consistency, but I’d be okay playing both in that format too. In tournaments, we can double or even triple-stack Matthew Stafford. The only bringback I’d consider would be Darren Waller who has a positive matchup.

Mike Evans $7800 vs Saints

Mike Evans must be feeling pretty pleased that he can go into this game without worrying about the narrative that Marshon Lattimore has his number. Evans has been in scintillating form this season and will become the Bucs all-time highest fantasy points scorer if he scores 14 points this weekend. The Bucs have had multiple passing touchdowns in each of the last three games and Mayfield played well when the teams met in Week 4, scoring 22.9pts. With the Saints teetering on the edge of nothingness, this game sets up well for Evans to continue his fine form.

Usage Suggestions: Tournaments only.

Nico Collins $7200 vs Titans

The Texans are getting healthy at the last possible moment and in time for a perfect matchup for their eleventh-ranked passing offense to take on the Titans 25th ranked passing defense. Nico Collins is in line for a potential blow-up spot against a Titans team ranked 31st in DVOA against WR1s. Since Week 10 the Titans have allowed four different receivers to score 22 or more points and at $7200 that’s the ballpark we’re looking for from Collins.

Usage Suggestions: Playable in all formats.

Deebo Samuel $7700 & Brandon Aiyuk $7000 vs Commanders

Another team that I’m tempted to run high exposure to their wide receivers is the Niners. Initially, this felt like a perfect spot for Aiyuk to deliver another blow-up game, against the Commanders woeful passing defense, which ranks 32nd in DVOA and allows the second-most fpts to WRs. Aiyuk thrives out wide where the Commanders are vulnerable, allowing the third-most fpts there, but because of his price and matchup, Aiyuk is looking to be more popular than Deebo who has been more consistent this year. Samuel also feasts against two-high safety looks, seeing 39% of Purdy’s first reads in those looks and the Commanders have played two-high in 68% of snaps since firing Jack Del Rio. 

Usage Suggestions: There isn’t a wrong way to play this. Both players have excellent matchups. In tournaments I’ll play both paired with Purdy and in cash games I’ll play whichever player works best for my budget.

Rashee Rice $6900 vs Bengals

Over weeks 8-13 Rashee Rice averaged 64% of snaps, but since then it’s jumped to 84% and he’s become the clear second option on this offense behind Kelce, averaging 10.0 targets per game over the last five. The Bengals passing defense is a bottom-ten unit, allowing the sixth-most yards per game and a league-high 15.3 yards per reception. Rice is a fine play this week.

Usage Suggestions: I prefer the matchup for Kelce, and $6900 feels a touch expensive but I wouldn’t rule out playing Rice in any lineup. The double stack with Mahomes is very much in play for tournaments.

Chris Olave $6800 vs Bucs

Over the last four games Chris Olave has reached 110 receiving yards in three of them, with Derek Carr finally waking up to the fact that he has a very good WR he should be throwing to. The Bucs have been poor against the pass all season, ranking 27th against WR1s and giving up a league-high 194 receiving yards per game to receivers. 

Usage Suggestions: A fine play in all formats. In tournaments, I would rather stack Mayfield and use Olave as a bring back or stick to correlating Olave with Evans and/or Godwin.

Zay Flowers $5600 vs Dolphins

Against the Niners Zay Flowers saw a career-high 38% target share with 13 targets turning into 72 yards and a touchdown. Flowers has been a top-15 WR in three of the last four games, stepping up in Mark Andrews's absence. Since Week 11 the Dolphins have allowed four different wide receivers to score 17.4 or more points. The Dolphins also allow the ninth-most receptions per game (13.2) and the sixth-most WR touchdowns (1.0).

Usage Suggestions: All formats, but an easier click in tournaments. Stacking Zay with Lamar is a no-brainer. 

Salary Savers

Wan’Dale Robinson $4000 – Volume is there but it’s not a friendly matchup, Rams allow 7th fewest fpts to slot receivers

Demario Douglas $4300 – averaging 7.0 targets per game over the last six games Douglas has played in. Buffalo allows the 8th-highest catch rate to WRs.

Curtis Samuel $4400 – I don’t love this play as the Rams are pretty good against the slot, but if the Rams do what we hope, someone is getting there from the Commanders.

Jonathan Mingo $3500 – Volume has consistently been good for Mingo and Jaguars are a pass-funnel defense.

Jalen Guyton $3000 – Who else is there?

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15 weeks into the season we're getting rave reviews from our members who are creating profitable lineups based on the writeups they're reading.

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