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Week 15 DFS Deep Dive: Wide Receivers




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Wide Receivers


Cooper Kupp $7800 & Puka Nacua $7300 vs Commanders


It’s not often that I want both expensive options in a passing offense, but it’s too hard to look past either Rams receiver this week. The Commanders are dead last in DVOA against the pass and allow the second-most fpts to WRs and a league-leading 15.4 yards per reception. Nine different WRs have scored 20 or more PPR points against Washington and Matthew Stafford is straight dealing right now, with Cooper Kupp coming off his best performance since Week 6 and Nacua continuing to have at least seven targets in every game this year.


Usage Suggestions: Everywhere you can fit them. In tournaments, we can be aggressive with this game and stack both with Stafford and add in Jahan Dotson as the bring-back.



Here's the matchup data for this game, as you can see, Washington doesn't look capable of stopping the Rams through the air. Our Discord members get this information for every, single game.



Deebo Samuel $7700 vs Cardinals 


Another player peaking at the right time is Deebo Samuel who has been cooking teams for the last three weeks, averaging 127 scrimmage yards and 2.0 touchdowns per game. The Cardinals play two-high safety looks at the highest rate in the league and Samuel dominates against that scheme, leading the league in yards per route run at 4.27. The Cardinals lead the league in allowing a 72% catch rate to opposing wide receivers and in recent weeks allowed both Tank Dell and Amari Cooper to score over 24 PPR points against them.


Usage Suggestions: Playable in all formats. In tournaments, I’ll be interested in Marquise Brown as a bringback to Purdy stacks, where Deebo is the priority and one of either Aiyuk or CMC.


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Mike Evans $7500 vs Packers


The Falcons held Mike Evans to one catch for eight yards with AJ Terrell and Jessie Bates doing what they’ve done so well this year, but the Packers likely won’t provide quite as stern a test for Evans with them ranking 28th vs WR1s in DVOA, allowing eight performances of 80 or more receiving yards. The Packers are more susceptible on the ground, but I don’t see that stopping Evans from being in play this week.


Usage Suggestions: I’d prefer Deebo Samuel in cash games but for tournaments, Mike Evans looks fun either stacked with Baker or on Jordan Love stacks with one or both of Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft.


Chris Olave $7100 vs Giants


Weeks 1-8 Chris Olave averaged 12.8 PPR points per game and was frankly a letdown, but since then he’s averaging 17.2 points and become a much better fantasy option, consistently appearing inside the top 20. We’ve still yet to see a real blow-up performance that propels Olave into the top five but twitch three games over 90 yards in his last four and a game against the Giants it might be coming. The Giants rank 25th in DVOA vs WR1s, allowing the third most fpts to WRs and struggling against the deep ball.


Usage Suggestions: Anything involving Derek Carr needs to be tournaments only at this point. In tournaments, a correlation with Saquon Barkley is as far as I’d go.


DeAndre Hopkins $6200 vs Texans


Perhaps the most boom-or-bust offense in football right now welcomes the Texans into their house for the first of two fixtures in the coming three weeks, and it’ll likely be a more subdued offense than in previous weeks. The Texans rank 28th in DVOA against the pass and have struggled against WR1s, ranking 27th and having allowed 12 different receivers 15 or more points, as well as four games over 22 points since Week 9. Hopkins has seen 12 targets in back-to-back games and recorded 199 receiving yards and two touchdowns in that spell.


Usage Suggestions: I’m not quite sure I can go there for cash games, but in tournaments, it’s a fine play. I could be tempted into a Will Levis stack, but let’s see how the weekend unfolds first.


Brandin Cooks $5200 vs Bills


The Cowboys and Bills matchup is by far the most interesting on this slate, but it’s not the easiest to attack with a lot of priced-up plays, however, Brandin Cooks is cheap and faces the Bills secondary that ranks 32nd in DVOA vs WR2s, giving up 17 point games to DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, and Chris Godwin since Week 8. Before the Cowboys Week 7 bye, Cooks was averaging 21.8 yards per game but since then he’s up to 60.7 and seems to have established himself as the WR2 ahead of Michael Gallup.


Usage Suggestions: I’d prefer a bit more projectable volume for cash games, but in tournaments, Cooks makes sense and can be used with either Dak or Josh Allen.


Marquise Brown $5100 vs Niners


When Marquise Brown demanded a trade away from the Baltimore Ravens it was supposed to be with better days in mind, but his stats since then have been pedestrian for the whole, with plenty of WR2 finishes but rarely being able to dominate. This week might give Brown an opportunity to earn some money in free agency though, with him scoring 16.6 points against the Niners when the teams met in Week 4 and their secondary getting markedly worse since then. Since Week 11 the Niners have given up four games of 15 or more PPR points to wide receivers, with Tyler Lockett, Mike Evans, DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown all finding joy on the outside against San Francisco, who have allowed the second most fpts to WRs aligned out wide.


Usage Suggestions: Brown is the clear number-one target in Arizona and in a good enough matchup that we can consider him for cash, but of course, it’s an easier click in tournaments where we could stack him with Murray and bring it back with Deebo, or play it as Brown the bring back to Purdy stacks.


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Jayden Reed $4900 vs Bucs


In games that Christian Watson has missed, Jayden Reed scored 14.03 PPR points and sees an increase from 4.8 targets to 7.5. Meanwhile, Romeo Doubs sees only a 0.75 increase to his targets and a a slight dip in his yardage totals. Reed is the clear lead when Watson misses out as he will again this week. The Bucs rank 23rd against WR1s in DVOA and 18th against the pass, allowing the sixth-most fpts to receivers having surrendered 20 or more points on nine occasions this year, including three since Week 11.


Usage Suggestions: Here, there and everywhere. Stacked with Love, Kraft and Evans in tournaments.


Jahan Dotson $4700 vs Rams


As mentioned elsewhere, I’m into Jahan Dotson this week, and to a lesser extent, Terry McLaurin ($5600). I lean towards Dotson partly because of price but also because Dotson has been the big play option and has twice as many touchdowns as McLaurin’s two. The Rams rank 20th in DVOA against both WR1 and WR2s, so if you lean strongly towards Terry, I would understand it, but avoiding Curtis Samuel here is the main priority with the Rams allowing the eighth-most fpts to WRs out-wide but the third-fewest to slot receivers.


Usage Suggestions: Tournaments only. Reed is a better player for cash games.


Elijah Moore $4500 vs Bears


Yes it’s absolutely worth mentioning that Amari Cooper saw a 32% target share last week after leaving the previous week's game through injury, and clearly Joe Flacco had eyes for Cooper sending 14 targets his way, but this week it might be a game more suited to Elijah Moore. The Bears allow the eighth-most fpts to WRs lined up in the slot, a position Moore has consistently played in this year, meanwhile, the Bears have allowed the seventh-fewest points to receivers out wide, where Cooper typically plays.


Usage Suggestions: Last week’s rug-pull is fresh enough in the memory that I’m not wild about this one for cash games but in tournaments, it feels fine as a one-off play, or added to Bears stacks, or possibly even a Joe Flacco double-stack. 


Wan’Dale Robinson $3700 vs Saints


I don’t love this play as the Giants are a different team week to week it feels like and so are the Saints, but Wan’Dale is going to be perhaps the most chalky player on the slate this weekend and it feels worth going over why he is. Robinson led the Giants with a 35% target share on Monday night, seeing eight targets for 115 yards and finishing as a top eighteen wide receiver, which was only the second time this year a Giants receiver has reached those lofty heights. The Saints have allowed the fourth-fewest WR fpts this year, giving up a single 20-point game to Adam Thielen in Week 2. They have though allowed five double-digit performances since Week 10, and at $3700 that’s all we really need out of Robinson.


Usage Suggestions: Popular enough to play in cash games. Lacking in ceiling enough that I’d rather fade for tournaments, but might consider a Chris Olave correlation.


Juju Smith-Schuster $3600 vs Chiefs


Revenge game narrative? Smith-Schuster led the Patriots with a 23% team target share in the win over the miserable Steelers, seeing a season-high 2 deep targets as well as setting season highs in yards per route run (2.9), yards after catch (28) and receiving yards (90). The Chiefs defense has been excellent all year, but their strength is against receivers out wide, where they allow the seventh-fewest fpts. Against slot receivers, like Juju, they are middle of the table, allowing the 16th most fpts.


Usage Suggestions: Best kept for tournaments.


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