Week 11 DFS Deep Dive: Wide Receivers
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Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb $9200 vs Panthers
Over the last four games CeeDee Lamb has played, he’s hauled in 43 receptions for 643 yards and 4 touchdowns, with only one week outside the top two wide receivers. The Panthers have been stronger against the pass than the run, allowing the fifth-fewest fpts to the position, but this is typically due to game script more than excellent play, with the Panthers allowing the eighth-highest catch rate to the position and middle-of-the-table 12.3 yards per reception. In DVOA the Panthers rank 26th vs WR1s, as further proof this passing defense isn’t what it appears on the surface.
Usage Suggestions: Lamb is very pricey this week and perhaps the Cowboys do lean into trying to get the running game going, but in tournaments I’ll still take shots and Dak and CeeDee stacks, mixing in Ferguson or Tony Pollard along with Adam Thielen.
Amon-Ra St. Brown $8800 vs Bears
Out of the eight games that Amon-Ra St. Brown has played this season, he’s topped 100 yards in all but two of them, racking up that lovely 3-point bonus on Draftkings. St. Brown belongs in the elite tier of wide receivers after constantly putting up volume and performances that win weeks and now comes up against a Bears defense that has been stronger against the run than the pass of late, ranking eleventh best against outside receivers, but 10th worst against slot receivers, which doesn’t spell good news for Chicago this week.
Usage Suggestions: As always, St. Brown will be in my cash game pool and for tournaments I like Goff, St. Brown and Gibbs stacked together possibly with Kmet or Mooney on the other side.
Cooper Kupp $8100 vs Seahawks
Cooper Kupp at $8100??? In this economy? Yes, I know those three six-point games in a row were dreadfully painful, but one of them at the very least we can chalk up to former Rams backup Brett Rypien’s awful play, and now after a bye week Matthew Stafford appears healthy enough to resume dink and dunk duties. The Rams host the Seahawks who allow the fifth-most fantasy points to slot wide receivers, an area we know that Kupp will lurk in.
Usage Suggestions: It’ll be hard to fit two 8k+ wide receivers into a cash game team, and I’d understand people preferring St. Brown, who will be more popular too. In tournaments though, this makes Kupp an interesting leverage play against St. Brown. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have a stronger matchup than Smith-Njigba if you’re looking to correlate. Looking at ownership projections it seems likely a game many people won’t be attacking heavily, which is worth noting.
Mike Evans $7400 vs 49ers
The Niners secondary is their biggest weak spot on the team, and already the kind of glaring weakness that could come back to bite them in the playoffs, but for now it seems that their offense will bail them out more often than not. The Niners allow the fifth-most fpts to wide receivers lined up out wide, an area where Mike Evans has made a career out of winning the ball. Over the last four games, Evans has 87.75 yards per game with 0.75 touchdowns per game.
Usage Suggestions: I prefer stacking this game from the Purdy side, using him and Aiyuk paired with Evans and probably at least one more player from this game. In cash games, there are probably safer plays to be had.
Brandon Aiyuk $7200 vs Buccanneers
The Bucs have given up big games to plenty of wide receivers this year with six different players totaling over 100 yards, 10 players scoring 15 or more PPR points and allowing 10 touchdowns to wide receivers. Aiyuk’s breakout hasn’t been quite as big as it looked like it would be in the opening month when he had two top-eight performances, since then he’s averaged 12.5 PPR points and finished outside the top-20 every single week. This could be the get right spot Aiyuk needs.
Usage Suggestions: Tournaments only, as part of the previously mentioned Purdy and Mike Evans stacks.
DeAndre Hopkins $6100 vs Jaguars
Another receiver with a promising matchup is DeAndre Hopkins, who faces a Jaguars defense allowing the leagues-highest rate of points to receivers lined up out wide, which is where Hopkins has played the vast majority of his snaps this season. Early on in the year the Titans experimented with playing Hopkins in the slot, but it didn’t last long and Hopkins has returned to where he’s been most effective throughout his career.
Usage Suggestions: The way that Hopkins delivers big games these days is a little more boom or bust than we’d like for cash games, so I’d keep this as a tournament-only play where we can correlate with Christian Kirk or Calvin Ridley if you like to live dangerously.
Christian Kirk $6000 vs Titans
The Titans have been a pass-funnel defense all year, allowing far better days to opponents through the air than on the ground, including being particularly vulnerable to slot receivers, where Christian Kirk makes his money. Before last weeks down game against the Niners, Kirk had averaged 16.5 PPR points since Week 2, and should be licking his chops at the prospect of facing a Titans team allowing the fifth-most points to slot receivers.
Usage Suggestions: Kirk’s volume is the kind of play we need for cash games, and I’d prefer him here to tournaments.
Tank Dell $5900 vs Cardinals
The Cardinals simply can’t stop wide receivers catching the ball when it’s on target, with receivers enjoying a league-high 72% catch rate when facing Arizona, and this could be a difficult day for them with MVP candidate CJ Stroud rolling into town. Stroud leads the league in passing yards per game (291) and has excelled at spreading the ball around to receivers we didn’t expect much from. Dell has been a top twelve receiver in three games this year, including both of the last two weeks, and even if Nico Collins plays this week he’ll still stand to be a good play, having had five or more touches for four straight games.
Usage Suggestions: Cheap enough for cash games, but perhaps not the ideal profile. I’ll be more tempted for tournaments where we can look at Stroud double-stacks with Trey McBride bring-backs.
Marquise Brown $5300 vs Texans
The Texans defense is tougher than the Cardinals by quite some way, but they still allow the seventh-highest catch rate to opposing wide receivers and rank 24th against WR1s in DVOA, giving up the eighth-highest yardage to receivers dubbed WR1 in terms of volume and production. Brown has a disappointing reunion with Kyler Murray, catching one ball for 28 yards against the Falcons, who if you’ve tuned in to our preview shows, we’ve talked up as being able to take away teams top options at times. This weekend Brown should be able to get there on volume alone.
Usage Suggestions: I’d be content rolling Brown out in all formats either as part of Kyler stacks or as a bring-back to Stroud stacks. Don’t ignore Rondale Moore ($3600) either, who had a team-high nine targets last week.
Christian Watson $4600 vs Chargers
It’s hard not to think that Jordan Love has held back Christian Watson, with his deep ball completion rate of 28% ranking 30th among quarterbacks with 50 or more pass attempts. Watson's 38.5 receiving yards per game ranks 61st among wide receivers, and his 2.3 receptions rank 71st with his catch rate of 42% ranking dead last among 113 WRs with 10 catches or more. The Chargers have allowed the fourth-most wide receiver fantasy points per game along with the third-highest yards per reception (15.0), which might help Watson get the kick-start he sorely needs.
Usage Suggestions: Tournaments only… strictly tournaments only. I’d be happy to stack with Jordan Love and run it back with Austin Ekeler.
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