Week 10 DFS Deep Dive: Wide Receivers
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Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen $8800 vs Lions
It’s not been pretty since the Chargers lost Mike Williams with the whole offense struggling even further since Josh Palmer landed on IR, but Keenan Allen has back-to-back games with eight catches and at least 69 yards in both. The Lions allow the seventh-most fantasy points (fpts) to opposing slot receivers, a part of the field where Allen spends 62.9% of his time.
Usage suggestions: Allen is expensive and getting both him and CMC in a cash lineup might be too tricky, but I’d be happy with either one. In tournaments, this is one of the key matchups to target and I’d be looking at mega-stacks in tournaments under 1000 players, using Goff, Amon-Ra, Allen and LaPorta.
Amon-Ra St.Brown $8300 vs Chargers
The Chargers, meanwhile, allow the fourth most receiving yardage to wide receivers per game (191) and give up the third-highest yards per reception (14.7) and the fifth most WR TDs per game too (1.1). Over St. Brown’s last six games, he’s had over 100 receiving yards in all but one appearance, Week 4, when he was struggling through injuries. St. Brown averages the sixth-most WR points per game at 20.0, scoring more points than all quarterbacks not named Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts.
Usage suggestions: St. Brown is the prototypical cash game receiver and offers everything Allen does at a cheaper price, in a better offense. In tournaments, I want to prioritize St. Brown in stacks, unless looking to leverage one of the Lions RBs vs the Chargers.
DK Metcalf $6800 vs Commanders
It’s not been pretty for DK Metcalf this year, once again completely failing to separate from Tyler Lockett, despite ADP pricing him several rounds higher, but then it’s also not been pretty for the Seahawks offense throughout this year, with the passing game averaging 224.8 yards per game and 1.1 touchdowns. This though, is the week. The get right spot of all get right spots for the Seahawks because the Commanders play fast, Sam Howell drives the ball downfield and their defense can’t stop a gust of wind. The Commanders allow the third-most WR fpts, the fifth-most receiving yards, the second-most WR TDs per game and a league-high 15.5 yards per reception. The Commanders are weak all over the field, but most vulnerable on the perimeter, where DK Metcalf can feast.
Usage suggestions: This is another matchup I’m planning on attacking heavily and I’m interested in all of the passing game options, with a minimum of two pass-catchers added to each stack, and most likely three.
Chris Olave $6400 vs Vikings
Speaking of wide receivers who haven’t lived up to their ADP, Chris Olave comes into this game with a 16.6-point performance against the Bears. Olave has yet to break 20 points this season, something that has been done 93 different times by Olave’s wide receiver brethren across the league. The Vikings have allowed the ninth-most points to wide receivers and the seventh-most to WRs out wide, where Olave spends 60% if his time.
Usage Suggestions: Feels a little too flimsy for cash games but in tournaments I’d be okay rolling Olave out, either with Derek Carr or solo, and correlating with Jordan Addison who has a better matchup than TJ Hockenson.
Chris Godwin $6700 vs Titans
I like both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for this game, but I slightly lean towards Godwin as the Titans allow the fifth-most points to opposing slot receivers, and the tenth-most to outside WRs. Godwin has been used less in the slot this year than every year since his rookie season, but when the matchup suits it, Godwin will jump from 25% slot snap rate all the way up to 45%, and I would bet on the Bucs having identified this as an area they can capitalize. Over the last five games, Godwin has averaged 8.6 targets and is averaging 65.4
Usage Suggestions: I think there are safer bets for cash games this week, but in tournaments, I really like this game and think we can lean into the two pass-funnel defenses and attack it aggressively. Stacking either Mayfield or Levis with Hopkins, Godwin and either Evans or Okonkwo, and hope that this game becomes the sneaky shoot-out of the week.
Calvin Ridley $5600 vs 49ers
The Niners defense is not the same Niners defense that has helped them get deep into the playoffs over the last few years, allowing the second-most fpts to outside WRs along with the fifth-highest catch rate (70.1%) and the second-most receptions per game to the position (16.1). Ridley has had three big games this year, reaching over 80 yards, including Week 8 before the bye, and with another week to reset it shouldn’t be surprising if the Jaguars try and keep him involved more.
Usage Suggestions: $5600 is very cheap for a player like Ridley, even if he has busted more often than we’d like, but given the matchup, I’d be okay with Ridley in cash games. In tournaments I’m warming up to the idea of Brock Purdy stacks with Aiyuk and Ridley.
DeAndre Hopkins $6000 vs Buccaneers
The Buccaneers are fresh off allowing over 400 passing yards to CJ Stroud with Nico Collins, Noah Brown and Tank Dell combining for 323 yards and four touchdowns, with Dell and Brown both finishing inside the top three receivers. To date, Tampa allows the second most fpts per game to the position, with a league-high 206 yards allowed. In the Will Levis era, Hopkins is averaging a 24% target share, good for 17 targets including six deep targets, which is the second most over the last two weeks only behind CeeDee Lamb.
Usage suggestions: I prefer some of the other volume-hog receivers for cash games but like Hopkins plenty in tournaments, and it makes sense to stack him with Levis when utilizing him.
Drake London $5500 vs Cardinals
The Cardinals secondary is rotten, allowing a league-high 72% catch rate to opposing wide receivers and the ninth-most receiving yards along with allowing top-ten rates to both slot and outside receivers. London missed out on Taylor Heinicke’s first full start in Week 9, but sounds to be healthy this week and should benefit from Heinicke looking to drive the ball downfield, boasting a 10.1 average depth of target (aDOT), which is higher than all starters except Will Levis, and a substantial jump from Desmond Ridders 7.8.
Usage Suggestions: I would rather play Bijan Robinson in cash games and London in tournaments. I’m not sure I can bring myself to stack anyone in this game.
Jahan Dotson $5000 vs Seahawks
The Seahawks have allowed the 10th most fpts to WRs and give up the fifth-most receptions to the position, despite having some good players in their secondary. Dotson comes into this game after back-to-back games inside the top-10 wide receivers, totaling 177 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games. Dotson also mixes into the slot, averaging 43% of his snaps there, and that’s an area the Seahawks bleed points to, allowing the fourth-most.
Usage Suggestions: I’m happy enough to play Dotson in cash games if Curtis Samuel misses out, but otherwise I’d reserve this for tournaments because Samuel could capitalize against that weak slot defense, but I’ve already stated that I plan on stacking this game heavily this weekend and will be doing so regardless of Samuel’s status.
Christian Watson $4900 vs Steelers
Over the five games Watson has played he’s failed to surpass 37 yards in all but one, which is why his salary has dropped below the 5k mark, and his projected ownership is below 2%. What we do know though is that Jordan Love wants to push the ball downfield and when Watson hits, it’ll have top-eight potential among receivers that week. The Steelers allow the third-most receiving yards to WRs, which is slightly surprising given they sometimes suck the air out of games, but the simple truth is their secondary is living on borrowed time and an old reputation.
Usage Suggestions: Definitely not cash games. Stacking Love doesn’t really appeal, but it’s worth considering if we’re betting on Watson’s true ceiling outcomes. If that doesn’t start your engine then correlating Watson with Diontae Johnson or Najee Harris feels fine. Jayden Reed also has an excellent matchup from the slot and is a great dart throw at $3800.
Trenton Irwin $3000 vs Texans
Expect this play to pick up steam throughout the weekend with Tee Higgins ruled out. Irwin thrived when Higgins missed out in Week 5, scoring 14 PPR points, and going 8/60 against the Cardinals. It’s a dart throw, but the team seems to like him.
Usage Suggestions: Wherever you need the savings, but stronger in tournaments than cash.
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