DFS Deep Dive: Week 6 (Wide Receivers)
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Wide Receivers
Ja’Maar Chase $8300 vs Seahawks
With Tee Higgins out of the lineup and Joe Burrow looking healthier, Ja’Maar Chase had an utterly dominant 43% target share against the Cardinals, posting 192 receiving yards on 15 receptions and three touchdowns. The Seahawks have allowed the eighth-most fantasy total points to opposing wide receivers and on a per-game basis that jumps to a league-worst 48.2 per game, allowing four different receivers to pick up at least 80 yards. The Bengals have no other plan than Ja’Maar Chase and it doesn’t make sense to ignore him in DFS.
Usage Suggestions: Chase is the player I’ll put into cash game lineups first and then work backward making everything else work around him. In Tournaments, we can stack Burrow with Chase and then lean into either of the Seahawks best receivers or take a dart throw on Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Cooper Kupp $9000 vs Cardinals
Shortly before lock last weekend, someone said to me “You have to play Cooper Kupp at $8400, it’s the cheapest he’ll be all season” and in hindsight, that looks absolutely correct. Kupp saw 12 targets and turned them into 19.8 PPR points. On Matthew Stafford’s first drive of the game, Kupp was targeted on six of Stafford’s ten pass attempts, and of those six, Kupp caught five for 56 yards. The Cardinals are fresh off being eviscerated by Ja’Maar Chase and likely fair no better this weekend, having given up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing slot receivers.
Usage Suggestions: I would rather play Chase or St. Brown in cash game lineups, but in tournaments I’ll sprinkle in some Kupp + Hollywood lineups and go as far as Stafford double-stacks with Hollywood involved as well.
Amon-Ra St. Brown $7700 vs Buccaneers
The Lions have a very condensed offense in terms of those who are good and see the ball often and those who aren’t don’t tend to. St. Brown is good, and healthier, playing against a Bucs defense that allows 14.4 yards per reception (fifth-highest). St. Brown has struggled with injuries this year, but was the WR10 in Weeks 1-4, averaging 17.4 points per game and either scoring a touchdown or going over 100 yards in each game. Sooner or later St. Brown will have a game where he combines both and that’s when the points will really hit.
Usage Suggestions: A fine play for cash and tournaments. In tournaments, I’d opt for St. Brown paired with Rachaad White or possibly even Cade Otton as a dart throw, who himself has a favorable matchup.
Marquise Brown $5300 vs Rams
For the last four weeks, Marquise Brown has scored at least 16.1 PPR points on a total of 37 targets. Brown is seeing volume at a top-tier rate and being productive with it, but he’s left to languish in the bargain bin because of the offense he plays for, despite us seeing week in and week out that it doesn’t matter. The Rams passing defense has been better than expected, giving up a single passing touchdown to a wide receiver thus far, but in a pass-heavy game script, I expect Brown to return value at this price.
Usage Suggestions: The matchup isn’t ideal, but the price is. I’d consider Brown for all formats and as an obvious bring-back on Stafford Stacks.
Adam Thielen $5900 vs Dolphins
Adam Thielen’s transition to being a high-volume slot receiver has been excellent for fantasy football, with him seeing at least 8 targets in his last four games and clearing 20 points in all but one of those appearances. The Dolphins allow the fifth-highest catch rate to opposing receivers and grade out as no better than the middle of the pack in most other metrics. With the Dolphins so heavily favored, it’s likely the Panthers pass often and need to use their most reliable offensive player to try and do anything at all.
Usage Suggestions: I prefer Hollywood or Christian Kirk in cash games, but don’t mind adding Thielen to tournament stacks.
Christian Kirk $5400 vs Colts
It was fair to worry about Christian Kirk’s role to start the season when he had a route participation of only 65%, but since then he’s capitalized on Zay Jones’s absence and likely isn’t going to be taken off the field as often when Jones is healthy. Kirk has averaged 17.0 PPR points over the last four weeks, leading the team in targets (40), Route Participation (90%) and Yards Per Team Pass Attempt (2.16). The Colts are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing slot receivers (24.2/gm) and should have their hands full if Lawrence continues to lean on Kirk.
Usage Suggestions: Playable in all formats, particularly if Zay Jones misses out. In tournaments, stacking Kirk either with Lawrence and one of Pittman or Downs, or as a bring-back to Colts stacks, makes for a nice start to lineups.
Josh Downs $4100 vs Jaguars
There’s no point crying about Anthony Richardson’s absence, particularly when Gardner Minshew has been effective for the Colts receivers and in particular, has given a boost to Josh Downs when on the field. During plays that Minshew has been leading the Colts, Downs averages a 25% target share, operating from the slot 83% of the time and primed to take advantage of a Jags defense that has given up the NFL’s ninth-most yards (902) and third-most touchdowns (6) to wide receivers.
Usage Suggestions: Perhaps a little thin for cash games but if it unlocks the studs… it might be worth it.
Jordan Addison $5700 vs Bears
Jordan Addison had been slowly working his way into the first-team offense, setting a season-high target share of 19.1% in Week 5, and turning it into his biggest fantasy output to date (18.4 points). Addison was an excellent prospect coming out of college and well-worthy of the first-round draft capital that the Vikings invested in him, now Addison will have to prove that he can deal with WR1-level coverage from opposing defenses. Fortunately for Addison, it starts with a game against the Bears who allow the sixth-highest yards per reception to wide receivers (14.1).
Usage Suggestions: Perhaps the Vikings collapse without Justin Jefferson, but it won’t stop me from using Addison in cash games and tournaments. I prefer targeting this game in the passing game on both sides so will have some Addison and DJ Moore correlations.
Tyler Lockett $5700 vs Bengals
DK Metcalf has been banged up and in and out of practice, despite having a bye week to get healthier, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a nice matchup but has yet to prove it. Eventually, all roads lead back to Tyler Lockett who has had a 20% or greater target share in each of the last three games and while two of those games led to disappointing returns, Week 6 shouldn’t.
Usage Suggestions: Tyler Lockett in cash games always feels safe and while it hasn’t been lately, this game feels like one for the passing attacks on both sides. In tournaments, I’ll be fading a pricier Metcalf ($6800) and either ride solo with Geno or mix in JSN at $3600.
Curtis Samuel $3700 vs Falcons
Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson should be dominating Sam Howell’s targets, but instead, they are struggling to separate from Curtis Samuel who boasts a 16.4% target share, right between McLaurin’s 18.1% and Dotson’s 15.5%. Samuel has seen 15 targets in the last two games and it’s not all shallow-easy completion passes, he’s also seen two deep targets in the last three weeks. Samuel has turned this target share into back-to-back performances of 18 PPR points, finishing as a top 15 wide receiver in weeks four and five. We’ve seen the Falcons clamp down on outside receivers of late, allowing an average of 7.5 points there, in contrast to 17.5 from the slot where Samuel can feast.
Usage Suggestions: I’m not sure I like this play enough for cash games but will use Samuel in at least one tournament lineup.
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