DFS Deep Dive: Week 5
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Wide Receivers
There is SO MUCH value at wide receiver this week. This is a good thing because the studs are finally starting to be priced up as such with both Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill in the $9k range now. We’ll talk about it more on the DFS Clinic video, but people will be drawn to the ‘stars and scrubs’ lineups.
Puka Nacua $7700 vs Eagles
I bet you thought I was going to be writing about another Rams wide receiver in this spot and believe me, it’s taking plenty of effort not to. I do believe you can play Cooper Kupp this week, because of the positive reports out of the Rams camp and because of the type of player that Kupp is. However, $8600 is a lot of cheese, and when we compare that to the kind of points haul Tyreek Hill or Justin Jefferson could get, then it becomes very risky to play Kupp, so he’s strictly a tournament play. Now back to where I was before… Puka Nacua is if anything in a better situation than he’s already been, with Cooper Kupp demanding attention from opposing defenses. The Eagles defense is living off last year's reputation and it isn’t warranted, at least not in the secondary where they’ve allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Puka might see a dip in volume, but he’ll likely be as productive as ever.
Usage Suggestions: This game will be a popular stacking option, but most people will lean into Jalen Hurts. I would be tempted to stack Nacua with Stafford and AJ Brown to get different. Sadly, Nacua is out of cash game consideration this week because of the unknown quantity of Cooper Kupp.
Jordan Addison $5300 vs Chiefs
I brought this stat up on the weekly preview show and it’s worth repeating, according to Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) these are Jordan Addison’s splits when the Vikings are trailing and leading.
58% -- Jordan Addison's route participation rate when tied or playing with a lead.
80% -- Addison's route participation when Minnesota has trailed.
The Vikings are projected to be four-point underdogs in Kansas City this weekend, so we might finally see the Jordan Addison breakout game we’ve been waiting for. For what it’s worth, Addison had a chance for a deep touchdown against Carolina but Kirk Cousins underthrew him. The Vikings lead the league with 19 passing plays over 20 yards and it’s safe to assume we see more of the same from them this week.
Usage Suggestions: whenever we’re talking boom/bust players, it has to be a tournament play. I like stacking Addison with Mahomes and Kelce, assuming that Jefferson fails to pay off, or taking a mini-correlation of Pacheco and Addison and looking for a game stack elsewhere.
Marquise Brown $5000 vs Bengals
After Week 1 I wrote that I was a little disappointed to not see Marquise Brown’s target share above 30% given the lack of talent around him, when he posted only 16%. Since then, Brown has recorded shares of 34%, 33% and a slight dip last week back to 24%. Those games have brought 27 targets which Hollywood turned into no less than 16 points per week, keeping him as a top 24 option each week. The Bungling Bengals have allowed the eighth-highest yards per reception to wide receivers over four games (13.8) and it shouldn’t be surprising to see Brown get loose, as he’s seventh in the league in air yards share (42%).
Usage Suggestions: I think that the floor is safe enough here for Brown to be cash-game viable. In tournaments, the obvious stack is the Bengals with Brown as the come back… brave souls will flip that and stack Dobbs, Brown and Chase.
Kalif Raymond $3300//Josh Reynolds $4200 vs Panthers
The Lions listed Amon-Ra St. Brown as doubtful for Sunday’s matchup, which typically leads to a player missing out. If St. Brown misses out it will likely boost the passing role of Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam Laporta, but some of the wide receivers will likely catch passes against this poor Panthers team. Reynolds is third in team targets (19) but is also banged up and has been a consistent name on the injury report for two weeks now. I think the most likely scenario is that the Lions play more multiple tight end sets if St. Brown misses out, but I don’t mind mixing in a maximum of one of these receivers if you’re looking for leverage away from David Montgomery.
Usage Suggestions: Tournaments only. With so many elite quarterbacks on this slate, I’m not sure it’s worth double-stacking Jared Goff unless it really helps you access a lot of studs elsewhere.
Garrett Wilson $6000 vs Broncos
The Jets were as impressive as they’ve been at any point during Zach Wilson’s career against the Chiefs, and it might be a case of the tallest dwarf at the fair, but it’s worth noting how much the team talked about wanting Zach Wilson to learn from that game. The Nathaniel Hackett Revenge Game is absolutely there for the taking if the Jets attack this Broncos pass defense that has allowed a league-high 83.8% catch rate to opposing wide receivers along with the 8th most passing yards (750), the joint most touchdowns (6) and has simply looked hopeless to date. Wilson saw 9 targets against the Chiefs and scored 15 points, ideally, we’d be looking for closer to 20 at this price, but the Broncos are wish-makers in that department.
Usage Suggestions: Tournaments only. Better to take small correlations in this game than over stack it.
DeAndre Hopkins $5700 vs Colts
It’s not been overly pretty for DeAndre Hopkins ever since he found himself depleted of options late in the free agency market. Through four games with the Titans he’s scored single digits twice and is yet to put up 70 yards or score a touchdown, so why Tom are you writing these words… stick with it folks. The Colts have allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, at the seventh-highest catch rate (71%), giving up five touchdowns in four games to WRs and while Hopkins hasn’t caught a touchdown yet, he’ll be a solid volume option providing leverage away from Derrick Henry.
Usage Suggestions: Tournaments only. This game doesn’t feel that stackable, but a Richardson, Downs and Hopkins stack will be unique and get you access to bigger correlations elsewhere.
Tank Dell $4800 vs Falcons
After two 20+ point games for Tank Dell, Week 4 was a disappointment with only 3.9 points as the Texans were completely in control of a weak Steelers team. This week Nico Collins finds himself in a very difficult matchup with a Falcons secondary who shadow opposing wide receivers far more often than average, and Collins will likely find himself dealing with A.J. Terrell along with a decent dose of Jessie Bates too. This should open things back up Dell, who is definitely approaching a point where he’s too expensive, but he isn’t there yet.
Usage Suggestions: Dell is cheap enough for all formats and a fine play in either. Expect him to come in around the 10-15% rostered range, so it’s not a complete freebie pick but one we shouldn’t be afraid of. I won’t be gamestacking this game but don’t a slice of Bijan and Dell together in tournaments.
Wan’Dale Robinson $3000 vs Dolphins
This is the stone cold minimum price we ever see wide receivers at on Draftkings and it’s rare we get such a good option at this pricing. Through two games back Robinson has a combined 10 touches for 68 yards, good for 15.8 PPR points. That’s not crazy-good volume but it’s enough of a floor that it will entice people to build a stars and scrubs lineup by punting this roster spot in an effort to get up to one of the top talents. Robinson saw his snaps climb in Week 4 and barring any setbacks he likely plays as the WR2 behind only Darrius Slayton in Week 5. The Dolphins defense is fraudulent with Xavien Howard once again looking overhyped and overpaid. Through four games they’ve allowed the sixth-highest catch rate to wide receivers, the joint-second-most touchdowns (5) and the 11th most fantasy points to slot receivers (83.5).
Usage Suggestions: Too cheap to ignore anywhere.
Zay Flowers $5500 vs Steelers
This play has been slightly muddied by the returns of Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman, but Flowers role should be fairly safe in an offense that has forced the ball in his direction over the opening month of the season. Flowers is averaging 7.3 targets per game and leads the Ravens in air yards share (25%). We’re yet to get any touchdowns from Flowers, but he’s in a prime spot against a Steelers defense that has allowed three top 5 wide receiver performances through four games.
Usage Suggestions: I prefer Flowers in tournaments this week. People will shy away from an AFC North-Slugfest, but that just means we’re getting an ownership discount on a player with a 28% target share.
Josh Downs $3700 vs Titans
After the Week 3 game where Gardner Minshew targetted Josh Downs a massive 12 times, Downs came back down to Earth slightly in Week 4 with only three targets but there are reasons for hope in Week 5. Downs averages 84.1% of his snaps from the slot, an area the Titans struggle to cover, giving up the seventh-most fantasy points through four games. The Titans have allowed the third-most receiving yards to wide receivers (825) and if the Colts have success they will need to rely on both the passing game and the running game.
Usage Suggestions: Cheap enough for all formats, but an easier click in tournaments where I’d look for small game stack correlations rather than big ones.
Rashee Rice $3600 vs Vikings
If you’re looking for cheap ways to gain access to a prime matchup then Rashee Rice stands out at only $3600. Rice leads the Chiefs wide receivers in targets (16) and is seeing an expanded role with his snap percentage increasing up to 50% steadily. When Rice is on the field Mahomes has looked to him resulting in a 34% target per route run rate, which is the third-highest rate in the league right now.
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