DFS Deep Dive: Week 1 - RBs
WE ARE BACK! DFS is back and it is time to flip the switch from Best Ball Degen over to DFS Degen and get ready to get back into the daily fantasy streets.
If you are new to DFS then I’ve recently written a couple of articles that might get your head around the terminology and nuances of the game.
Creating Cash Game Lineups - https://www.fantasypros.com/2023/09/nfl-dfs-lineup-advice-how-to-create-cash-game-strategies-2023-fantasy-football/
Creating Tournament Lineups - https://www.fantasypros.com/2023/09/how-to-create-gpp-tournament-lineups-in-dfs-2023-fantasy-football/
Stacking Advice & Theory - https://www.fantasypros.com/2023/09/nfl-dfs-stacking-strategy-advice-2023-fantasy-football/
Each week this article will bring you not only the cash game locks that you’ll want to jam in to lineups, but I’ll also bring you the deeper plays and the stats and facts that make them worth your time when building lineups. I’ll throw plenty of theory into the mix to help you understand how I’m seeing each play and the article will be updated from the second you read it, all the way through to kick-off on Sundays.
Each week you’ll be able to read a single position group on this website, but if you’d like access to the entire Deep Dive, along with an exclusive Members-Only video talking through core plays and stacks for each week, then you can subscribe through our YouTube Members section, choosing the Golden Deckchair package, which works out to the equivalent of less than $2 per week. Once you’re subscribed you’ll have access to our Discord with the full write-up available there.
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Week 1
Nick Chubbs vs Cincinnati Bengals - $8200
If you’re paying down at quarterback you’ll need to spend up somewhere this week and it’s unlikely that Nick Chubb will find his way into a high percentage of rosters, in part due to the cost of rostering him when other cheaper options might appeal more. This makes him an intriguing tournament play. In 2022 Chubb rushed for 80 or more yards in 12 of his 16 appearances and went over 100 in seven games, accruing the important 100-yard three-point bonus on Draftkings. Chubb might be about to embark on a campaign that sees him involved in the passing game more often than ever before, and if he can take his 1.3 receptions per game in 2022 and turn it into over 2.0 and possibly closer to 3.0, then his fantasy value is going to explode.
Usage Suggestions: Chubb is fairly game-script-proof, but it might not make complete sense to bring back one of the Bengals stud receivers with him, in case the game gets out of hand and then Chubb might lose out on some rushing production. I prefer Chubb as a solo play for cash games when paying down at quarterback.
JK Dobbins vs Houston Texans - $6600
If you’re paying down at quarterback position and not intrigued by Lamar Jackson then it makes sense to consider the Ravens lead running back in a fixture against a team that was woeful against the run in 2022. Dobbins struggled in his return from a serious ACL injury, but down the stretch in weeks 14-17 he led the league in rushing yards (397) while breaking the most big runs (7) and working at 7.0 yards per carry. Dobbins has rarely seen the volume to truly deliver breakout performances but that felt like a Greg Roman thing rather than Dobbins not being able to cope with the workload.
Usage Suggestions: As mentioned already, Dobbins is a pivot away from Lamar Jackson, and can be paired with virtually any quarterback. Whether you perceive Dobbins as safe enough for cash games comes down to how much you expect the Ravens to put the pedal to the floor throughout the game.
Kenneth Walker vs L.A Rams - $6000
The Seahawks upset fantasy managers with the drafting of Zach Charbonnet and while it might spell bad news for Kenneth Walker’s output in the long term, in the short term he’ll start the season as the lead running back in a matchup against one of the weakest defenses in the league. The Seahawks are a favourite, at home, and these are situations that we always want to tap into when selecting running backs. Between weeks 4-12 of the 2022 season, Walker was the RB6 across a period where he averaged 17.0 PPR points per game looking like a true league winner until down the stretch he got banged up and his numbers suffered with significant dips in missed tackles, big run percentage and touchdown rate. This coincided with the Seahawks offensive line also getting banged up, which shouldn’t be the case this weekend.
Usage Suggestions: Walker is a perfect candidate for cash games with everything falling in his favour this weekend. The Seahawks were terrible against tight ends in 2022, which makes a correlation with Tyler Higbee enticing.
Rachaad White @ Minnesota Vikings - $5500
In 2022 Rachaad White was an inefficient runner but kept himself alive with receptions. This year White won’t have Tom Brady dumping the ball off to him but Baker Mayfield should be able to manage passes of that nature, and with the Bucs offensive line taking on water before the Pirate ship even takes the seas, quick passes would be a good idea. The Vikings defense isn’t strong and regression could be coming for them this year.
Usage Suggestions: There is nothing safe about this Buccanneers team, and as such White is reserved for tournament plays only, where he can be used as a bringback to Justin Jefferson or other Vikings pass-catchers. The theory is that the Vikings run up the passing game and White sees plenty of work in a hurry-up offense from Tampa.
Raheem Mostert @ L.A Chargers - $5400
There aren’t many 31-year-old running backs that I would feel good about starting in fantasy lineups, but Raheem Mostert looked good at times in Miami last year, scoring over 15 PPR points on five occasions and seeing three or more targets on seven occasions. The Dolphins struggled against certain defensive looks, including two high safety looks that can be countered with quick passes nearer to the line of scrimmage. Another box Mostert checks is that he faces a Chargers run defense that has been bad for a long time and doesn’t look to have taken any measures to stop that this year.
Khalil Herbert vs Green Bay Packers - $5300
The cheapest running back that looks like a strong play is Khalil Herbert who enters the season as the lead back on a Bears offense that should improve at least slightly in 2023. In 2022 David Montgomery averaged 12.9 touches per game to Herbert’s 9.9, but now that Montgomery is out of town, Herbert could see a path to 15 touches in this game against a Packers defense which last year allowed the NFL’s fourth-most yards per carry (5.0) and eighth highest fantasy points per game to running backs.
Usage Suggestions: Herbert is a pivot away from a Bears passing offense that people will be intrigued to play after flashing in the preseason, and while they could well explode, DJ Moore faces Jaire Alexander and might struggle. Herbert is a little thin for cash games, but for tournaments, he can be correlated with tight end Luke Musgrave who could see a lot of volume with Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs dealing with hamstring injuries.
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